Payroll growth
Payrolls above consensus can strengthen the growth picture, while a downside miss can raise concern about slowing labour demand. Revisions to prior months can materially change the reading.
US economic report · Employment
US Employment Situation
Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and market reaction
A permanent release record for the headline US jobs package: payroll growth, unemployment and average hourly earnings, paired with the first five minutes of cross-market price action.
NFP
Release summary
The US employment package delivered a mixed signal.
Nonfarm payrolls changed by 57K versus 115K expected. Unemployment was 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month. This is historical context, not a trading signal.
Latest figures
Actual vs forecast
Payrolls are shown in thousands of jobs. Rate and earnings surprises are shown in percentage points.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 57K | 115K | 172K | -58 K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Average hourly earnings, MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 0.0 pp |
Recorded market reaction
US jobs day, tick by tick
XAUUSDGold / US dollar
Last bid before release4,064.33
5 sec after release+0.405%bid 4,080.81
30 sec after release+0.837%bid 4,098.34
1 min after release+1.276%bid 4,116.19
5 min after release+1.544%bid 4,127.07
The chart plots 1,620 stored bid ticks for XAUUSD. Moves use the last bid before 12:30 UTC as baseline and do not represent an executable fill.
Instrument coverage
Rates, the dollar and risk assets
Gold and USDJPY show rate and dollar repricing. US100, US30 and Bitcoin add equity and broader risk context.
- XAUUSD Gold / US dollar
- Gold priced in US dollars; often sensitive to changes in the dollar and real-rate expectations after labour-market surprises.
- USDJPY US dollar / Japanese yen
- A major dollar pair that can respond to changes in relative US interest-rate expectations.
- US100 Nasdaq 100
- A reference price for the Nasdaq-100 equity index, balancing growth news against changes in expected interest rates.
- US30 Dow Jones 30
- A reference price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader US growth outlook.
- BTCUSD Bitcoin / US dollar
- Bitcoin priced in US dollars; included as a separate risk-sensitive market observation.
Three-release record
Latest Employment Situation releases
Each record preserves payrolls, unemployment and wage growth together with the observed five-minute market reaction.
Jul 2, 2026June 2026Mixed versus consensusOpen recordClose record
2 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 0 were above and 2 matched. Direction on this page accounts for the inverse interpretation of the unemployment rate.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 57K | 115K | 172K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Average hourly earnings, MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | +0.405% | +0.837% | +1.276% | +1.544% |
| USDJPY | -0.230% | -0.262% | -0.244% | -0.521% |
| US100 | +0.048% | +0.196% | +0.356% | +0.323% |
| US30 | +0.039% | +0.113% | +0.258% | +0.203% |
| BTCUSD | +0.215% | +0.261% | +0.307% | -0.029% |
Jun 5, 2026May 2026Mixed versus consensusOpen recordClose record
0 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 1 were above and 3 matched. Direction on this page accounts for the inverse interpretation of the unemployment rate.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 172K | 85K | 115K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Average hourly earnings, MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | -0.118% | -0.327% | -0.305% | -0.255% |
| USDJPY | +0.051% | +0.044% | +0.061% | +0.076% |
| US100 | -0.034% | +0.021% | -0.052% | -0.166% |
| US30 | +0.000% | +0.023% | -0.027% | -0.085% |
| BTCUSD | +0.228% | -0.003% | -0.239% | -0.737% |
May 8, 2026April 2026Mixed versus consensusOpen recordClose record
2 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 1 were above and 1 matched. Direction on this page accounts for the inverse interpretation of the unemployment rate.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 115K | 65K | 178K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Average hourly earnings, MoM | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | -0.087% | +0.072% | -0.030% | +0.281% |
| USDJPY | +0.029% | -0.050% | -0.019% | -0.112% |
| US100 | +0.040% | +0.105% | +0.018% | +0.121% |
| US30 | +0.010% | +0.117% | +0.048% | +0.140% |
| BTCUSD | +0.125% | -0.000% | -0.142% | -0.081% |
The public archive is intentionally limited to the latest three release events.
Market context
Why the Employment Situation moves markets
The report combines a growth signal from payrolls, a labour-slack signal from unemployment and a wage-pressure signal from earnings. Markets assess the package together when repricing Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar.
Jobs package surprise→Growth and wage outlook→Fed rate path→Cross-market repricing
Unemployment
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate is generally firmer, but participation and household-survey employment help determine whether the change reflects genuine labour strength.
Average hourly earnings
Wage growth connects the labour report to inflation. A stronger earnings surprise can reinforce concern about persistent service-sector price pressure.
Cross-market response
Gold, the dollar and equities can react differently when the package contains conflicting growth and inflation signals or when positioning dominates the first move.
Employment data are revised and no single headline describes the entire labour market. Payroll revisions, participation, hours worked, simultaneous releases and market positioning can change or reverse the initial response.
Indicator guide
What the jobs package measures
The BLS combines two surveys. The establishment survey produces payroll and earnings estimates; the household survey produces unemployment and labour-force measures.
- Nonfarm payrolls
- The monthly change in paid US employment excluding farm workers and several other categories, displayed here in thousands.
- Unemployment rate
- The unemployed population as a share of the civilian labour force. A lower-than-forecast rate is usually interpreted as firmer.
- Average hourly earnings
- Month-over-month and year-over-year changes in average private nonfarm hourly pay, used as a wage-pressure signal.
- Revisions
- Previous payroll estimates are revised as additional survey responses and administrative data become available.
Methodology
How this page is assembled
Release tables preserve the actual, consensus and previous values stored with each calendar record. All four headline readings must be present at the same release timestamp before a snapshot is generated.
The latest chart plots every stored bid tick from 30 seconds before publication through the selected horizon. Reaction percentages use the last bid before release as baseline. Timestamps are UTC; moves do not establish an executable fill, spread, slippage or profitability.
News trading context
From a US jobs release to a measured news-trading workflow.
ToxicTraders connects scheduled macro releases, actual-versus-forecast evaluation, configured strategy logic, execution connections and post-trade review. This research page records historical reactions; the platform is where traders configure their own workflow.
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