US economic report
Latest release and market reaction
A permanent reference page for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI): what changed, how the result compared with consensus, and what major markets did after the release.
Release summary
The all items index fell 0.4% month over month against a forecast 0.1% decline. Both all items less food and energy readings were also softer than expected. This is a downside inflation surprise, but it does not by itself imply a trade direction.
The numbers
Surprise is shown in percentage points (pp), not as a relative percent change.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All items, MoM (SA) | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.5% | -0.3 pp |
| All items, YoY (NSA) | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | -0.3 pp |
| All items less food and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.2 pp |
| All items less food and energy, YoY (NSA) | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | -0.2 pp |
Recorded market reaction
The line plots every stored bid tick in the selected window — 1,632 points for XAUUSD. Percent moves use the last recorded bid before 12:30:00 UTC and the first tick at or after each horizon. They describe this release, not an executable fill or trading signal.
Instrument coverage
The same five markets have tick observations for each of the three releases shown below.
Three-month release record
Each record keeps the published figures and the same five market horizons, so the months can be compared without mixing instruments or methods.
All four tracked readings were below consensus, including both headline and core CPI measures.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items, MoM (SA) | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| All items, YoY (NSA) | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| All items less food and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| All items less food and energy, YoY (NSA) | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | +0.884% | +0.884% | +1.341% | +1.632% |
| USDJPY | -0.207% | -0.287% | -0.284% | -0.226% |
| US100 | +0.419% | +0.504% | +0.722% | +0.711% |
| US30 | +0.500% | +0.519% | +0.665% | +0.376% |
| BTCUSD | +0.361% | +0.784% | +0.946% | +0.837% |
Headline CPI matched consensus while the monthly core reading was 0.1 percentage point below forecast.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items, MoM (SA) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| All items, YoY (NSA) | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| All items less food and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| All items less food and energy, YoY (NSA) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | +0.297% | +0.465% | +0.679% | +0.519% |
| USDJPY | -0.035% | -0.031% | -0.011% | -0.017% |
| US100 | +0.539% | +0.456% | +0.333% | +0.591% |
| US30 | +0.178% | +0.119% | +0.087% | +0.096% |
| BTCUSD | +0.185% | +0.813% | +0.616% | +0.849% |
Headline MoM matched consensus, while headline YoY and both core readings were 0.1 percentage point above forecast.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items, MoM (SA) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| All items, YoY (NSA) | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| All items less food and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| All items less food and energy, YoY (NSA) | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | +0.002% | -0.127% | -0.083% | -0.096% |
| USDJPY | +0.023% | +0.039% | +0.023% | -0.008% |
| US100 | -0.056% | -0.062% | -0.003% | +0.093% |
| US30 | -0.001% | -0.037% | -0.029% | +0.041% |
| BTCUSD | +0.039% | -0.187% | -0.137% | -0.050% |
This is a rolling three-release window. A new CPI publication replaces the oldest record; the page URL and calculation method remain unchanged.
Market context
Markets do not react to the CPI level in isolation. They compare the release with consensus, assess the headline and core details together, and then reprice expectations for inflation, Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.
A higher-than-forecast CPI can support the dollar when it raises expectations that US policy will remain tighter for longer. A softer release can have the opposite effect. Relative policy expectations still matter, so different currency pairs need not move by the same amount.
Gold often responds through the dollar and real-rate channel. Firmer inflation can weigh on gold if yields and the dollar rise, but inflation-hedging demand, positioning or conflicting core data can produce a different reaction.
Equity indices balance the inflation signal against its implications for discount rates and growth. Rate-sensitive shares may react more strongly, while an unexpectedly soft CPI can be read either as policy relief or as evidence of weaker demand.
Treasury yields are a central transmission channel because CPI can change the expected policy path. Bitcoin may react through the dollar, liquidity and broader risk appetite, but its response is less direct and can diverge from traditional markets.
There is no fixed rule such as “CPI higher means gold lower.” Headline versus core differences, revisions, positioning and what markets had already priced can all change the outcome.
Understand the report
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Markets usually compare the published value with consensus, then reassess the path of inflation and interest rates.
Read: What is macro news trading?How to read this page
The release tables preserve actual, consensus and previous values. The latest-release chart plots every stored bid tick between 30 seconds before the official timestamp and the selected horizon. Reaction percentages use the last bid before the release as their baseline and the first bid at or after 5 seconds, 30 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes.
Tick observations are sourced from the ToxicTraders historical Dukascopy dataset and shown in UTC. Prices can differ across venues. The page does not infer fills, spread, slippage, profitability or whether a trader could have captured the displayed move.
News trading context
ToxicTraders brings scheduled macro releases, actual-versus-forecast evaluation, configured strategy logic, execution connections and post-trade review into one workspace. This research page describes historical reactions; the platform is where traders configure and evaluate their own workflow.