US dollar and rates
A firmer surprise may lift yields and the dollar when it changes expectations for the policy path. Existing positioning and other data can reverse that relationship.
US economic report
US Producer Price Index (PPI)
Latest release and market reaction
A permanent reference page for US producer inflation: what changed, how final demand compared with consensus, and what major markets did after publication.
4/4
Release summary
Every tracked PPI measure came in below consensus.
4 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 0 were above and 0 matched. This describes the consensus surprise, not a trading signal.
The numbers
Actual vs forecast
Surprise is shown in percentage points (pp), not as a relative percent change.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand, MoM (SA) | -0.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Final demand, YoY (NSA) | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Final demand less foods and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Final demand less foods and energy, YoY (NSA) | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | -0.5 pp |
Recorded market reaction
The release, tick by tick
XAUUSDGold / US dollar
Last bid before release4,038.51
5 sec after release+0.191%bid 4,046.24
30 sec after release+0.254%bid 4,048.77
1 min after release+0.243%bid 4,048.31
5 min after release+0.387%bid 4,054.14
The chart plots 1,117 stored bid ticks for XAUUSD. Moves use the last bid before 12:30:00 UTC as baseline and do not represent an executable fill.
Instrument coverage
Markets recorded around this release
The same instruments and horizons are used across the release history.
- XAUUSD Gold / US dollar
- Gold priced in US dollars; often sensitive to changes in the dollar and real-rate expectations.
- USDJPY US dollar / Japanese yen
- A major dollar pair that can respond to changes in relative US interest-rate expectations.
- US30 Dow Jones 30
- A reference price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- BTCUSD Bitcoin / US dollar
- Bitcoin priced in US dollars; included as a separate risk-sensitive market observation.
Three-month release record
The latest three PPI releases
Each record keeps the published figures and the same market horizons, so the months can be compared without mixing methods.
Jul 15, 2026June 2026 dataBroad downside surpriseView dataClose
4 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 0 were above and 0 matched.
Published PPI figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand, MoM (SA) | -0.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Final demand, YoY (NSA) | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, YoY (NSA) | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
Recorded bid-price change
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | +0.191% | +0.254% | +0.243% | +0.387% |
| USDJPY | -0.014% | -0.031% | -0.021% | -0.038% |
| US30 | +0.034% | +0.087% | +0.064% | +0.127% |
| BTCUSD | +0.389% | +0.331% | +0.360% | +0.176% |
Jun 11, 2026May 2026 dataMixed versus consensusView dataClose
2 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 2 were above and 0 matched.
Published PPI figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand, MoM (SA) | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| Final demand, YoY (NSA) | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, MoM (SA) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, YoY (NSA) | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
Recorded bid-price change
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | -0.027% | -0.054% | +0.089% | -0.143% |
| USDJPY | -0.002% | -0.001% | -0.005% | +0.013% |
| US30 | -0.020% | -0.056% | +0.002% | -0.084% |
| BTCUSD | +0.064% | -0.235% | -0.064% | +0.113% |
May 13, 2026April 2026 dataBroad upside surpriseView dataClose
0 of 4 tracked readings were below consensus, 4 were above and 0 matched.
Published PPI figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand, MoM (SA) | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| Final demand, YoY (NSA) | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, MoM (SA) | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Final demand less foods and energy, YoY (NSA) | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
Recorded bid-price change
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | -0.128% | -0.067% | -0.089% | -0.038% |
| USDJPY | +0.041% | +0.027% | +0.020% | +0.010% |
| US30 | -0.129% | -0.161% | -0.135% | -0.146% |
| BTCUSD | -0.132% | -0.144% | -0.161% | -0.292% |
This is a rolling three-release window. A new PPI publication replaces the oldest record; the page URL and calculation method remain unchanged.
Market context
How PPI affects markets
PPI measures prices received by producers. Markets compare headline and underlying readings with consensus, then assess whether producer-level price pressure may influence consumer inflation and Federal Reserve expectations.
PPI surprise→Inflation outlook→Policy and rates→Cross-market repricing
Gold
Gold can respond through real yields and the dollar. A producer-price surprise is one input, not a deterministic direction.
US stock indices
Equities balance margin pressure, growth implications and discount rates. Rate-sensitive shares may react differently from cyclicals.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin may move with liquidity expectations, the dollar and risk appetite, but the link to PPI is indirect and can diverge from traditional markets.
Understand the report
What the PPI indicators mean
The BLS Producer Price Index is a family of indexes measuring average changes over time in selling prices received by domestic producers. It views price change from the seller’s perspective, while CPI measures prices from the purchaser’s perspective.
- Final demand
- Goods, services and construction sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government purchase or export.
- Final demand less foods and energy
- An underlying measure excluding food and energy, two categories that can be comparatively volatile.
- MoM (SA)
- Seasonally adjusted change from the previous month.
- YoY (NSA)
- Not seasonally adjusted change from the same month one year earlier.
Methodology
A release record, not a hindsight strategy.
The release tables preserve the actual, consensus and previous values attached to each record. Consensus is a market estimate rather than a BLS figure. The latest chart plots every stored bid tick between 30 seconds before the official publication timestamp and the selected horizon. Reaction percentages use the last bid before the release as their baseline and the first bid at or after 5 seconds, 30 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes.
All timestamps are shown in UTC. Prices can differ across venues, and a recorded bid does not establish an executable fill. The page does not infer spread, slippage, profitability or whether a trader could have captured the displayed move.
News trading context
From a scheduled PPI release to a measured news-trading workflow.
ToxicTraders brings scheduled macro releases, actual-versus-forecast evaluation, configured strategy logic, execution connections and post-trade review into one workspace. This research page describes historical reactions; the platform is where traders configure and evaluate their own workflow.