US100
Long-duration technology valuations can be sensitive to changes in expected rates. A higher inflation-expectation surprise can pressure valuations if yields reprice upward.
US economic report · Inflation
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
Latest release and index reaction
A permanent reference page for the full University of Michigan consumer survey package, with primary attention on 1-year inflation expectations and the reaction across major US equity indices.
1Y
Primary inflation reading
One-year inflation expectations came in below consensus.
Actual 4.2% versus 4.4% consensus, a -0.2 pp surprise. Sentiment and conditions remain part of the same package; this is historical context, not a trading signal.
The Michigan package
Actual vs forecast
Inflation surprises are shown in percentage points; index surprises are shown in index points.
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year inflation expectationsPrimary focus | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | -0.2 pp |
| 5-year inflation expectations | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 54.4 | 51.0 | 49.5 | +3.4 pts |
| Current Economic Conditions Index | 54.9 | 48.7 | 47.7 | +6.2 pts |
| Consumer Expectations Index | 54.0 | 51.9 | 50.7 | +2.1 pts |
Recorded market reaction
US indices, tick by tick
US100Nasdaq 100
Last bid before release28,498.10
5 sec after release+0.069%bid 28,517.88
30 sec after release+0.017%bid 28,503.05
1 min after release+0.218%bid 28,560.20
5 min after release+0.151%bid 28,541.10
The chart plots 1,696 stored bid ticks for US100. Moves use the last bid before 14:00:00 UTC as baseline and do not represent an executable fill.
Instrument coverage
Indices first, cross-market context second
US100 and US30 lead the page. Gold, USDJPY and Bitcoin provide additional rate, dollar and risk context.
- US100 Nasdaq 100
- A reference price for the Nasdaq-100 equity index, where rate-sensitive valuations can respond to changes in inflation expectations.
- US30 Dow Jones 30
- A reference price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, balancing the package's growth and inflation implications.
- XAUUSD Gold / US dollar
- Gold priced in US dollars; often sensitive to changes in the dollar and real-rate expectations.
- USDJPY US dollar / Japanese yen
- A major dollar pair that can respond to changes in relative US interest-rate expectations.
- BTCUSD Bitcoin / US dollar
- Bitcoin priced in US dollars; included as a separate risk-sensitive market observation.
Three-month release record
The latest three Michigan releases
Preliminary and final packages remain separate release events and retain the values stored with each publication.
Jul 17, 2026Jun. 20261-year inflation expectations below consensusOpen recordClose record
1 of 5 tracked readings were below consensus, 3 were above and 1 matched. The highlighted interpretation follows the 1-year inflation expectation; the complete five-measure package remains visible below.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year inflation expectations | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| 5-year inflation expectations | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 54.4 | 51.0 | 49.5 |
| Current Economic Conditions Index | 54.9 | 48.7 | 47.7 |
| Consumer Expectations Index | 54.0 | 51.9 | 50.7 |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US100 | +0.069% | +0.017% | +0.218% | +0.151% |
| US30 | +0.022% | +0.011% | +0.064% | +0.002% |
| XAUUSD | +0.028% | -0.027% | +0.014% | -0.066% |
| USDJPY | +0.005% | +0.006% | -0.004% | +0.006% |
| BTCUSD | +0.048% | +0.032% | +0.145% | +0.003% |
Jun 26, 2026Jun. 20261-year inflation expectations matched consensusOpen recordClose record
2 of 5 tracked readings were below consensus, 1 were above and 2 matched. The highlighted interpretation follows the 1-year inflation expectation; the complete five-measure package remains visible below.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year inflation expectations | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 5-year inflation expectations | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 49.5 | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Current Economic Conditions Index | 47.7 | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Consumer Expectations Index | 50.7 | 49.6 | 49.3 |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US100 | +0.003% | +0.233% | +0.223% | +0.336% |
| US30 | -0.022% | +0.015% | -0.032% | +0.105% |
| XAUUSD | +0.026% | -0.035% | -0.102% | +0.098% |
| USDJPY | -0.002% | +0.002% | +0.006% | +0.003% |
| BTCUSD | -0.141% | +0.034% | -0.068% | -0.269% |
Jun 12, 2026Jun. 20261-year inflation expectations below consensusOpen recordClose record
2 of 5 tracked readings were below consensus, 3 were above and 0 matched. The highlighted interpretation follows the 1-year inflation expectation; the complete five-measure package remains visible below.
Published figures
| Measure | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year inflation expectations | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% |
| 5-year inflation expectations | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| Consumer Sentiment Index | 48.9 | 46.0 | 44.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions Index | 48.4 | 46.1 | 45.8 |
| Consumer Expectations Index | 49.3 | 44.9 | 44.1 |
Recorded reaction
| Market | 5 sec | 30 sec | 1 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US100 | +0.021% | +0.225% | +0.292% | +0.430% |
| US30 | +0.004% | +0.112% | +0.193% | +0.250% |
| XAUUSD | +0.026% | +0.129% | +0.134% | +0.199% |
| USDJPY | +0.004% | +0.002% | +0.006% | -0.030% |
| BTCUSD | -0.019% | +0.230% | +0.332% | +0.224% |
The public archive is intentionally limited to the latest three release events. Preliminary and final releases may refer to the same survey month.
Market context
Why 1-year Michigan inflation expectations matter
The year-ahead reading captures consumers' expected price change over the next 12 months. Markets can use a surprise as one input when reassessing inflation persistence and the interest-rate path, while the sentiment indices add information about household demand and growth.
1-year expectation surprise→Inflation persistence→Rate expectations→Index repricing
US30
The Dow can balance the inflation message against the package's signals on current conditions, expectations and household demand.
One year versus five years
The one-year measure is the near-term focus. The five-year measure helps distinguish a short-lived price concern from a change in longer-run expectations.
Preliminary versus final
Michigan publishes preliminary and final results. Each publication is retained separately because the values, consensus and market setting can differ.
Indicator guide
What the Michigan package measures
The release combines expected inflation with three survey indices, so no single number describes the full household outlook.
- 1-year inflation expectations
- Consumers' expected price change over the next 12 months; the primary inflation focus on this page.
- 5-year inflation expectations
- A longer-run expectation that adds context on whether inflation concerns appear persistent.
- Consumer Sentiment Index
- The headline summary index of consumer attitudes.
- Current Economic Conditions
- Consumers' assessments of present personal finances and buying conditions.
- Consumer Expectations
- Forward-looking views of personal finances and broader economic conditions.
Official source
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers tracks consumer sentiment, current economic conditions, expectations, and expected price changes over the year ahead and the longer run.
Open the official Surveys of Consumers release page ↗Methodology
How this page is assembled
The release tables preserve the actual, consensus and previous values stored with each calendar record. The latest chart plots every stored bid tick from 30 seconds before publication through the selected horizon.
Reaction percentages use the last bid before the release as baseline and the nearest stored bid at 5 seconds, 30 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes. Timestamps are UTC; displayed moves do not establish an executable fill, spread, slippage or profitability.
News trading context
From a Michigan release to a measured news-trading workflow.
ToxicTraders connects scheduled macro releases, actual-versus-forecast evaluation, configured strategy logic, execution connections and post-trade review. This research page records historical reactions; the platform is where traders configure their own workflow.